Poland: High December CPI, possibly linked to impending rise in minimum wage

By Rafal Beneck & Jakub Rybacki, January 7, 2020 Inflation accelerated to 3.4% YoY in December, surprising consensus. CPI should reach 4.5% in 1Q and 3.6% on average in 2020. Despite the surprise, we do not expect any shift in MPC rhetoric. The flash CPI reading increased from 2.6% to 3.4% YoY in December, well above market consensus (2.8%) and any individual forecasts. The major driver was core inflation – based on available data this jumped from 2.6% to 3.2% YoY. There were also some surprises from higher food and fuel prices, but these played a minor role. The full CPI breakdown will be available next week and currently, we can only ...